Development of the stochastic component assessment model internal potential of technological schemes for the development of strategies for the restoration of coal industry regions

Abstract

Purpose. To develop a new approach to the assessment of stochastic components of the internal potential of technological schemes of coal mines, which will allow to develop a methodology for the development of strategies for the restoration of coal mining regions. Methods. A complex method is used, which involves the application of decision-making criteria in conditions of uncertainty; modeling the potential of the technological scheme based on the use of two criteria - the maximum EVA with the given possibilities of technological resources and the minimum production costs. Findings. The task of forming the potential of mine technological schemes is reduced to the selection of factors that would most adequately reflect the main characteristic of the network of mining workings - an indicator of internal potential that characterizes the length and structure of mining workings, not as a functional dependence, but as an EVA (added value) parameter - consequences of the interaction of factors of coal mine activity in specific mining, geological and technological conditions. The formation of the internal potential of the mine's technological network is described by a multifactorial equation, the components of which are the labor productivity of the mining worker; annual progress of the cleaning line; the coefficient characterizing the length of the mine workings and the length of the cleaning line. In addition, the fact that the maximization of the indicator "internal technical potential" is achieved by minimizing the "ratio of throughput of technological links", "capacity limitation by factor" and "density of productive flows" is taken into account, respectively. If we consider or compare many different options, then the concept of "best" in terms of stochasticity is ambiguous and not absolute, it depends on what criterion is used to determine it. Let's assume that two criteria were adopted - the maximum production with the given possibilities of the resource potential and the minimum costs for production. It is obvious that the best option in the sense of the first criterion will not necessarily turn out to be the best according to the second criterion, for example, if an increase in the volume of production requires additional investments or subsidies. Thus, the concept of the "best" option is comparative or relative, since it is established only that, according to the selected criterion, this option is "better" than all those with which it was compared. But the number of considered variants is always limited, so the existence of one or more variants that are better than the accepted one is not excluded. Originality. A model for estimating stochastic components of technological schemes has been developed. For this, two tasks were considered: 1) minimization of mining costs with a possible decrease in mine capacity in the current calculation period; 2) maximizing the level of production at a given resource potential. A decision-making algorithm was given for each of the models. All this in the complex made it possible to develop recommendations for the development of a methodology for the restoration of coal mining regions. Practical implications. A complex decision support system is proposed, which includes a description of the decision-making algorithm and means of finding optimal solutions. Keywords: technological scheme, parameter, task, efficiency, strategy