Analysis of sir model for predicting the spread of measles

Abstract

The main task of the health care system in any country is to control the spread of infectious diseases. The social consequences, as well as the material losses, strongly demonstrate the need to predict the occurrence of epidemics. Measles is one of the most contagious diseases. In Ukraine, according to the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, more than 115,000 people have contracted measles since summer 2017, 41 of whom have died [1]. Simulation of the measles spreading allows to predict new outbreaks of measles and evaluate the strategy to prevent them.